UFC 301: Analysis and predictions for this May 2024 fight night

UFC 301 on 4 May 2024 is set to shake up the global MMA arena with a packed fight card. The UFC's most fearsome and competitive fighters will clash at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The flyweight title takes centre stage on a PPV card for the first time since Figueiredo and Moreno clashed at UFC 256 in 2020. For the Main Event, Alexandre Pantoja will defend his title (57kg ) on Brazilian soil against Australian Steve Erceg.
The Co-main Event will see the return of another Brazilian favourite, José Aldo, who will come out of retirement to face American Jonathan Martinez.

Pantoja vs Erceg

Alexandre Pantoja, or "The Cannibal", makes his return to Rio to defend his flyweight title for the second time. At just 34, the fighter is looking to extend his winning streak to 6. In his rise to the belt, he defeated many of the top fighters in his class, including Manuel Kape, Alex Perez and Brandon Royval, before taking Gold against Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 last July.

It was then in his rematch with Royval at UFC 296 in December that the Brazilian champion retained his title with a unanimous decision victory, a fine way to affirm his status as champion. After defeating most of the main contenders for the title, Alexandre Pantoja paved the way for Erceg, a newcomer to the UFC who has gone 3-0 in the Octagon in less than a year. 

This fighter, also known as 'Astro Boy', quickly rose through the ranks with an incredible 2nd round KO against Matt Schnell in March, just after refining the win hands down to David Dvořák and Alessandro Costa. Indeed, Steve Erceg presents a solid boxing game and works well from the outside. However, against Schnell, he showed signs of weakness towards the end of the 1st round. What is certain is that facing an opponent as versatile and dynamic as Pantoja represents a major challenge for Erceg, who could be tested both on the feet and when attempting takedowns. 

With such an impressive record, Pantoja's reign as champion seems far from over. Although Erceg has only suffered one defeat in the professional ranks, he has never faced an opponent of this calibre. And Brazilian fans want to see a spectacle! So it's quite possible that Pantoja will win inside the distance, perhaps by submission.

Martinez vs Aldo

José Aldo is well and truly back from retirement after retiring from the UFC in 2022 following his fight against Merab Dvalishvili on the way to winning his Bantamweight title. So why the comeback? That's the question on everyone's lips. 

Prior to that defeat, Aldo had been making steady progress in his new division, with 3 wins over Marlon Vera, Rob Font and Pedro Munhoz. And he's got a secret weapon for that: his kicking game, which has earned him the nickname of "king of legs kicks" on the featherweight side. But Martinez knows all about this formidable weapon and could well challenge Aldo in this match. 

Indeed, Jonathan Martinez won against 2 of his previous opponents, Swanson and Yanez, thanks to this one. This allowed him to become only the second UFC fighter to score multiple TKO's in this manner, alongside Edson Barboza. And Martinez is going from strength to strength as he boasts a well-deserved 6-fight winning streak following his decision victory over Said Nurmagomedov last year. 

But Aldo is a real adversary in the octagon as before he retired, he was winning against top 10 fighters in the division. To date, only Conor McGregor, a legend in his field, Petr Yan and Max Holloway have been able to stop him.

Overall, this fight could go the distance. Martinez could well slow Aldo down with leg kicks and win by decision in three rounds.