Can Verstappen outpace Pérez, Leclerc, and Sainz in China?

This Sunday, 21 April 2024, we’re treated to the Chinese Grand Prix. If we follow the logic that has prevailed for many months, it's Max Verstappen who should win on this track. That is, barring a reversal of fortune, as happened recently at the Australian Grand Prix. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the drivers battling for the title? (image © Florent Gooden/Panoramic /Photo News)

Since the start of the F1 2024 season, Max Verstappen once again seems to be the clear favorite, with wins in Bahrein, Saudi Arabia and Japan. The only slip-up came at the Australian Grand Prix, where the Belgian-Dutch driver suffered major technical problems, his car catching fire due to a rear brake after just 3 laps. Nothing and nobody is infallible. That said, Verstappen was not impressed, and took his revenge a few days later at Suzuka.

In China

All that remains to be seen is how things will unfold in China on Sunday, 21 April. This will be the fifth round of the Championship and, above all, the first Grand Prix of the season to feature a Sprint race, which means that the drivers will be redoubling their efforts to perform better. It's sure to be a race full of twists and surprises, as we can’t forget that the Shanghai track hasn't been visited by F1 since 2019 (pandemic). The counters will therefore be reset to zero for (almost) everyone.

The exercise is clearly going to be very complicated for everyone, as the cars have obviously evolved since 2019. Teams and pilots alike are not hiding their concerns, as the more pronounced ground effect makes the cars very sensitive to the circuit’s quirks. "I just hope there won't be any problems with the track, with manhole covers or anything like that. That would put us out of sync", warned Sergio Pérez. For his part, Max Verstappen indicated that "Yes, it's very smart to do that... [...] Because when you've been away from a circuit for a while, I think you never know what you're going to encounter".

In Sprint

The principle of Sprint racing is dreaded by drivers. Only one free practice session remains on Friday morning, followed by qualifying in the usual three-part eliminatory format (Q1, Q2, Q3) to determine the starting grid for Sunday's race. On Saturday, the traditional free practice session is replaced by the Shootout, a shortened version of the classic qualifying session, to establish the starting grid for the Sprint race. 

Sunday remains unchanged, with the race taking place in the afternoon. Why is this the way things are? To spice things up, of course, because the less time there is for free practice, the more action there is on the track. Having said that, Sprint races are also there to appeal to F1's young recruits, who are used to the short formats of social networks.

Who will come out on top?

Drivers will compete on a 5.451-kilometer circuit, and will need to complete a total of 56 laps to complete the 305.066 kilometers required for victory. The results from the start of the season are quite clear: Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez, the two Red Bull drivers, are the clear favorites. That said, the race is likely to be decided between these two on the one hand, and in by Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz on the other.

Indeed, while the latter remains the only driver to have managed to snatch two victories for the Red Bull team since last season, his Ferrari teammate knew a very good start to the season and is just lying in wait for a potential mistake from Perez or Verstappen. Both drivers finished on top of the podium at the Australian GP, sending out a strong signal.

When making your predictions, don't forget to take into account the performances of other drivers who could create a stir, including Daniel Riccciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Kevin Magnussen and Yuki Tsunoda, all of whom are determined to make their mark on the discipline.